Insight
How do you test a major decision before you commit to it?
Most decisions fail because the wrong question was answered.
The short answer
A major decision is ready to make when the decision is clearly defined, the alternatives have been considered, the assumptions beneath it have been tested, and the cost of being wrong is understood. Decisions rarely fail because the chosen option was poor. They fail because the wrong question was answered, or a single untested assumption carried the whole case. A strategic decision review tests the decision before commitment: what is actually being decided, what must be true for it to work, what happens if it is wrong, and what should be resolved first.
When this matters
- A board approval is approaching.
- A market entry is being weighed.
- A major capital commitment is on the table.
- A CEO appointment or leadership change.
- An acquisition or strategic pivot under time pressure.
What gets tested
- The real decision, against the one being presented.
- The alternatives that have not yet been considered.
- The assumptions the case depends on, and the evidence for them.
- The cost and reversibility if the decision is wrong.
- The sequence, and what should not be rushed.
Common problems
- Answering the wrong question well.
- One untested assumption carrying the entire case.
- No genuine alternative considered.
- Confusing urgency with readiness.
- Treating an irreversible decision as if it could be unwound.
What the review produces
A written view of the decision, the assumptions and risks it depends on, and the steps to resolve before the company commits.
Related review
Contact
Discuss a decision
PHCA works with a limited number of companies at any one time. Enquiries are most useful where there is a defined decision, a clear timing issue and a need for independent judgement before the company proceeds.